What happens when procurement doesn’t rely on data, but is driven exclusively by experience?

In most procurement departments, two worlds collide.

On one side, you have experienced buyers who make decisions based on gut feeling and intuition—because they’ve “dealt with it a hundred times” and there’s no point drowning in analysis because, as the saying goes, “don’t teach an eagle how to fly.” On the other side, there are the buyers the first group mockingly calls “spreadsheet people”—those who swear by facts and want to make decisions based purely on objective data.

Both approaches have value, and both have their place in procurement.

Intuition and hands-on experience are powerful tools, especially in uncertain and fast-changing environments—where success depends on the ability to “look under the right stone,” navigate chaos, and recognize the right decision patterns. In other words, there are situations where experience simply cannot be replaced.

At the same time, there are many procurement situations where intuition and past experience don’t work—because the past provides no guidance for future decisions. Imagine, for example, a new technology enters the market. Suddenly, in a category where suppliers used to differ by 5% and negotiating a 10% saving was considered a great success, we are now talking about 80% discounts thanks to technological disruption.

Unfortunately, without high-quality data, the “routine experts” can easily miss these fundamental market shifts—while the “spreadsheet people” spot them immediately. In other words: reliable data never hurts. Without it, buyers can fall into the trap of thinking “I know this market and these prices like the back of my hand,” overlook real savings, stick to the same suppliers out of habit, and defend decisions based more on feeling than facts.

And in a world of growing pressure for cost reduction, transparency, and speed, that is an increasingly serious risk.

Data-driven procurement does not mean rejecting experience. Quite the opposite.

Only the combination of both gives buyers real strength:

📊 stronger negotiation arguments and the ability to negotiate effectively based on facts and data

📊 the ability to anticipate price trends and risks—and respond appropriately

📊 measurable results that can be clearly reported and defended, even to those who believe procurement savings are impossible to prove

Modern procurement is not about “keeping everything in your head and making the right call based on instinct.”

It’s about using data as the foundation for decisions—decisions then made by people with experience and well-developed intuition.

How does it work in your procurement team?

Do you rely more on experience, data—or a combination of both? 👇